What Would Israel Winning Absolutely Look Like?

Nov 1, 2024 8:57 am | News, Ticker, Virtual Jerusalem, VJ Views

Israeli War Goals and the Path to Regional Security: An Overview of the Seven Fronts and What It Would Take to Declare Absolute Victory

Israel’s pursuit of lasting security in the face of militant threats across multiple fronts demands a multi-dimensional victory that transcends the immediate battles in Gaza and Lebanon. A decisive win for Israel means establishing supreme control over Gaza, southern Lebanon, and Judea and Samaria (West Bank) while simultaneously addressing the more existential threat posed by Iran. An effective strategy against Iran, the primary source of funding, weaponry, and training for these proxy forces, is essential for sustainable peace. This analysis examines Israel’s strategic objectives in Gaza, Lebanon, and beyond, while focusing on the necessity of confronting Iran to dismantle the regional network of militancy.


Hostage Deal: Achievable Terms Reflecting Israel’s Strategic Gains

A critical step toward Israel’s definition of victory involves securing the unconditional release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. Nearly a year of continuous operations has placed Israel in a stronger bargaining position, allowing it to set terms that prevent further hostage-taking, minimize concessions, and enforce enduring security measures within Gaza. This deal would reflect Israel’s success on the ground and reinforce its commitment to a security-first approach.

  1. Unconditional Hostage Release
    Israel’s first demand in any negotiation should be the unconditional return of all hostages. This signals an uncompromising stance on human rights issues and asserts that no price is too high for the safe return of Israeli citizens.
  2. Phased and Monitored Prisoner Release
    Unlike past deals where high-risk detainees were often released, Israel should limit any prisoner exchange to low-risk individuals under phased conditions. Each stage of release would be contingent upon compliance by Hamas and verified adherence to security protocols, ensuring Israel retains leverage throughout the process.
  3. Control of Key Corridors and Buffer Zones
    A strengthened security posture within Gaza, supported by a continuous Israeli presence, would prevent Hamas from re-establishing its networks. Israel’s control over the Philadelphi Corridor, Netzarim Corridor, and northern Gaza is essential to this strategy, blocking arms smuggling routes, securing border areas, and enabling swift responses to any emerging threats. Such controls ensure Israel’s unchallenged ability to secure Gaza’s borders, underscoring a victory rooted in absolute territorial and operational control.

Southern Lebanon: Disarming Hezbollah and Securing a Buffer

Israel’s northern border is equally critical, where Hezbollah poses an immediate and complex threat. Israel’s victory in Lebanon requires neutralizing Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, dismantling its missile stockpiles, and establishing a permanent buffer zone along the Israeli-Lebanese border. This would involve:

  1. Targeted Military Strikes and Intelligence Operations
    Precision strikes on Hezbollah’s command centers, underground bunkers, and missile launch sites would severely degrade its offensive capacity. Israel’s ongoing intelligence operations must penetrate Hezbollah’s networks, with assistance from regional allies if necessary, to prevent rearming.
  2. Permanent Israeli Control of Southern Lebanon Buffer
    Securing southern Lebanon would require Israeli access to the area as a demilitarized buffer zone under Israeli command. This continuous security presence would prevent Hezbollah from re-establishing a foothold, securing Israel’s northern border from potential missile or rocket attacks.

Judea and Samaria (West Bank): Preventing Internal Threats

The West Bank poses another potential source of threat, with Hamas and other factions often exploiting this territory’s proximity to Israeli urban centers. Israel’s strategy in Judea and Samaria should focus on expanding security measures to counter any attempts by hostile factions to establish cells or launch surprise attacks.

  1. Security Infrastructure and Border Control
    A fortified border between Israel and the West Bank, along with real-time surveillance and fortified security outposts, would allow Israel to monitor and intercept threats before they materialize. Such measures serve as a preemptive deterrent, discouraging militants from attempting to establish operational cells in the area.
  2. Intelligence Collaboration with the PA
    Where feasible, Israel can engage in intelligence-sharing initiatives with Palestinian Authority (PA) factions to intercept Hamas influence and prevent recruitment in the West Bank. This dual approach would bolster Israel’s security posture while limiting Hamas’s capacity to spread influence within the territory.

The Iranian Front: Dismantling the Root of Regional Instability

Iran represents the most formidable threat to Israel’s long-term security, providing ideological, financial, and military support to proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. For Israel, winning the war against Iranian influence requires a robust strategy aimed at neutralizing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, curbing its regional power projection, and disrupting its support network of militant groups. Victory on this front would entail:

1. Targeted Destruction of Iran’s Nuclear Infrastructure

The first step to securing Israel against Iran is dismantling its nuclear program. Israel’s military campaign would likely include precision strikes on Iran’s primary nuclear facilities—Natanz, Fordow, Arak, and Isfahan. These fortified locations, some hidden deep underground, would require sophisticated bunker-busting ordnance and cyber-attacks designed to delay Iran’s progress toward weaponization. By crippling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Israel would be removing an existential threat and reinforcing the principle that nuclear escalation in the region is intolerable.

2. Degrading Iran’s Military Assets and Supply Networks

Beyond nuclear infrastructure, Israel’s approach must weaken Iran’s ability to project power through its IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and Quds Force operations. This would mean targeting Iranian military bases, munitions depots, and logistical routes that provide essential support to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria. The objective is to break the supply chain that sustains Iranian-backed militancy throughout the region.

3. Enabling Regime Change Through Pressure and Diplomacy

Iran’s theocratic regime, dominated by hardliners, has consistently fostered hostility toward Israel. By increasing pressure through targeted sanctions, intelligence operations, and support for dissident groups, Israel and its allies can erode the regime’s stability. Supporting internal opposition within Iran offers a long-term avenue for catalyzing regime change, potentially leading to a government less inclined to pursue aggressive anti-Israel policies. This element of Israel’s strategy would limit Iran’s influence across the Middle East, significantly diminishing support for hostile groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.

Extended Regional Security: Countering Houthis, Syrian Militias, and Iraqi Proxies

While Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities are top priorities, its influence extends to proxy groups in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. Securing victory across these fronts reinforces Israel’s position and deters future aggression.

  1. Houthis in Yemen
    Though the Houthis do not directly threaten Israel, they represent a strategic concern as an Iranian-backed faction in the region. By coordinating with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Israel can assist in limiting Iran’s logistical support to the Houthis, undermining Iran’s southern front and reducing its leverage over the Gulf.
  2. Syrian Militias and IRGC Forces
    Iran’s entrenchment in Syria, under the guise of supporting the Assad regime, enables it to establish forward operating bases close to Israel’s northern border. Through airstrikes and intelligence operations, Israel must continue to dismantle Iranian assets in Syria, focusing on preventing supply lines and reducing Iran’s foothold near Israel.
  3. Shiite Militias in Iraq
    Iraq serves as a logistical hub for Iranian operations in Syria and Lebanon. By targeting supply routes and collaborating with U.S. and regional allies, Israel can intercept Iranian support for these militias. Reducing Iran’s influence in Iraq limits its ability to channel resources to Hezbollah and other groups threatening Israel’s borders.

Conclusion: A Vision for Lasting Security

For Israel, true victory means comprehensive security across Gaza, Lebanon, Judea and Samaria, and against Iran. By addressing both the immediate threats and the regional power that sustains them, Israel is not merely securing its borders but reshaping the regional balance of power.

An effective hostage-prisoner deal, unyielding control over strategic corridors in Gaza, and the dismantling of Hezbollah in Lebanon reflect the short-term objectives of this campaign. However, the long-term victory lies in confronting Iran’s influence head-on—disrupting its nuclear program, crippling its regional operations, and potentially catalyzing regime change. This layered strategy secures Israel’s future by transforming a reactive defense posture into a proactive framework that deters aggression and stabilizes the region.

With these terms secured, Israel would not only be achieving military success but building a structure of security that ensures reduced threats against the Jewish state and the birthpangs of a new Middle East. That would be, in Benjamin Netanyahu’s words and to his credit, Absolute Victory.

1 Comment

  1. Sandra Smith

    BAD PLAN! Start with UNCONDITIONAL surrenders of both Hamas and Hezbollah, to include UNCONDITIONAL surrender of all weapons, and release of all hostages. Period! Saying “unconditional” then talking “phased release” and “low threat prisoners” is NOT unconditional. Unconditional sould look like Germany and Japan, except without the taking of their operatives and scientists (if they had any worth keeping), with continued Israeli occupation of all contested lands, specially those belonging to Israel under the divine covenant with Abraham! Israeli sovereignty over all lands designated in the covenant with Yhwh in Genesis, and all “Palestinians” given the option to become ISRAELI citizens , eventually, or to leave and go wherever, but no longer remain anywhere on Israeli land! And those o choose citizenship should understand the 1st hint of effort to harm Jews or others, or to overthrow the duly elected gov’t, will mean loss of citizenship and immediate expulsion from the land. NO further rebellion against YHWH God’s plan will be tolerated in Israel. That’s a better deal than they deserve, and 1 that protects all Israeli citizens, whomever they are! A peaceful protest is 1 thing, an ongoing guerilla war is quite another. Israelis have endured enough of that from the squatters calling themselves “Palestinians”!