A mystery blast in Iran signals that even a diplomatic deal may ignite further conflict, as Netanyahu demands full dismantlement and Trump bets on negotiations. Deal or no deal, Israel is poised to strike if it feels the nation faces existential risks.
A mysterious explosion rocked an Iranian military site near Isfahan over the weekend, offering a stark reminder that bombs may start falling even if Washington and Tehran strike a deal. Israeli security analysts, speaking on Army Radio, called it “a glimpse of the shadow war turning into a public one.” Israeli officials view the blast not as an anomaly, but as a warning of what could happen if Jerusalem judges a U.S.-Iran agreement to be dangerously weak.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday doubled down on Israel’s red lines, demanding the dismantling of all Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and warning that “a bad deal is worse than no deal.” Speaking at the Jewish News Syndicate policy conference in Jerusalem, Netanyahu stressed: “A real deal that works is one that removes Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. Dismantle all the infrastructure of Iran’s nuclear program. That is a deal we can live with.”
Netanyahu, citing past Iranian behavior, cautioned that a lenient agreement would merely allow Tehran to “run out the clock” and resume nuclear activities after President Donald Trump’s term ends.
In sharp contrast, Trump appeared confident that diplomacy would prevail. Speaking to reporters on Sunday, Trump said: “On the Iran situation, I think we’re doing very well. I think a deal is going to be made there. It’s going to happen. Pretty sure it’s going to happen.” He emphasized his aversion to military conflict: “We’ll have something without having to start dropping bombs all over the place.”
According to a senior Israeli official quoted by Channel 12 News, there is “growing concern in Jerusalem that Washington is nearing a bad deal that will fall far short of Israeli demands.” The official noted that Netanyahu was only informed of the renewed U.S.-Iran contacts hours before Trump went public.
While Trump told Time Magazine last week that he had not outright blocked Israeli plans for a strike, he admitted: “I didn’t make it comfortable for them to proceed.” Trump added: “Ultimately, I was going to leave that choice to them, but I said I would much prefer a deal than bombs being dropped.” However, he warned: “I may go in very willingly if we can’t get a deal. If we don’t make a deal, I’ll be leading the pack.”
Behind the scenes, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer reportedly urged U.S. officials to consider the use of “bunker buster” bombs against Iran’s fortified nuclear facilities. According to The Washington Post, Dermer’s trip to Washington featured pointed discussions emphasizing Israeli skepticism toward the U.S. diplomatic approach.
Israel’s intelligence community, according to Israel Hayom, is alarmed by indications that the U.S. may settle for limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment rather than dismantling its full nuclear apparatus—a position Israel deems unacceptable. Netanyahu has privately warned aides that any deal that leaves Iran with enrichment capabilities is “an illusion that would one day explode in our faces.”
Iran’s uranium enrichment has already reached 60%, perilously close to weapons-grade material. Tehran continues to deny that it seeks nuclear arms, yet the steady escalation in enrichment levels and the expansion of ballistic missile capabilities have fueled fears in Jerusalem.
The U.S. negotiation team’s public messaging has been inconsistent. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff initially suggested Washington might tolerate limited enrichment, then reversed course under pressure, insisting any agreement must “eliminate Iran’s enrichment and weaponization.”
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio further stated last week: “Iran can have a civil nuclear program, but without doing their own enrichment. They can have one just like many other countries in the world have one. That is, they import enriched material.”
Yet Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed that possibility, declaring that enrichment is “non-negotiable.”
Speaking Monday morning to Kan News, former Israeli National Security Council chief Meir Ben-Shabbat said bluntly: “There is no way to stop Iran with a piece of paper they do not respect. Only a credible military threat will.”
Meanwhile, security officials told Yedioth Ahronoth that Israeli operational plans for a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities have been refined and are “ready to be executed if necessary.”
With Washington eager to avoid a war and Jerusalem preparing for one if needed, the explosion near Isfahan may be only the opening act — even if diplomats announce a deal.
To the”good”, Trump did say, yesterday, if negotiations don’t work and military intervention is needed, he “will be leading the pack”; to the”bad”, he failed to define when and how he would recognize the deal is not going to happen…