Politico: US defense officials predicts that the Iranians are trying to strike a balance to hit Israel hard but not so hard as to bring in American military forces.

Iran is a “major” retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message — but aiming not to spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond, the U.S. assesses, according to a report in Politico.

Two Biden administration officials say that “a larger-than-usual aerial attack on Israel” is expected in the coming days, combining a mix of missiles and drone strikes, the report, leaving the officials anonymous.

But neither official was confident Iran will strike that balance, as any attack will likely provoke retaliation, risking a regional conflagration.

President Joe Biden, speaking during a Wednesday news conference, said Iran was “threatening to launch a significant attack on Israel.”

“Our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad,” he said. “We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security.”

Iranian leaders have explicitly warned in recent days that the country would react forcefully to the deadly April 1 attack on a diplomatic facility in Damascus. Iran’s supreme leader said Israel “must and shall be punished.”

“When they attack the consulate, it is as if they have attacked our soil,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday. “The evil regime made a mistake and must be punished and it shall be.”

The Biden administration expects Iran’s response in the coming days — as early as this weekend, according to one of the U.S. officials. “We’re still in that window” for an Iranian response, said the second official. But Iran is “looking to calibrate it, so they essentially don’t overplay their hand.”

The U.S. is sending direct messages to Iran through official channels, the first U.S. official said.

The officials would not detail whether Iran is planning to strike Israeli military assets or civilian targets. But the scope of the expected Iranian response will determine whether the situation spirals, experts said. Israeli Channel 12 News reported that the “success” of the strike is what will determine the Israeli response, not the Iranian “intent.”

The Americans concur. “The severity and success of this strike will likely be determinative of whether this escalates to a regional conflict. One that could include the United States,” said Mick Mulroy, a former DOD official, Marine and retired CIA officer.

The US and Britain have advised their citizens against non-essential travel to Israel. The IDF has canceled most leave for soldiers and severely restricted travel abroad.

Former Israeli Ambassador Michael Oren, speaking to show host Hugh Hewitt, called it a Dirty Harry moment: “Go ahead. Make my day.”