Washington urges safe passage for about 200 Hamas operatives trapped in Rafah’s tunnels if they surrender their weapons, but Israel insists on full custody—especially while remains of three Israelis and one Thai hostage remain unreturned.

Israel and the United States are locked in a tense dispute over what to do with roughly 100–200 Hamas operatives holed up in tunnels beneath the southern Gaza city of Rafah, on the Israeli-monitored side of the “yellow line.” Israel views the group as a strategic asset for leverage—with the remains of three Israeli hostages and one Thai national still unreturned—while U.S. officials are pushing for a “safe passage after disarmament” plan, hoping to establish a model of demobilisation for Gaza beyond the war.

The Standoff

During operations in Rafah, Hamas fighters tunnelled beneath the city and some became trapped behind Israeli control lines. With movement cut off and exits collapsed or sealed, they remain immobilised in a confined underground enclave. Israel regards them as high-value combatants—dangerous if freed, a potential intelligence trove if captured. Washington sees an opportunity to test a non-kinetic exit route: fighters surrender weapons, evacuate under supervision, and immediately become neutralised for future conflict.

Israel objects to a large-scale “exit corridor” unless it’s strictly controlled and includes incarceration or permanent incapacitation. Jerusalem’s position: if they walk out, they must be held. U.S. diplomacy counters that it’s better they exit disarmed than end in a protracted siege. The disagreement now signals deeper fault lines in the broader war-termination strategy.

The Stakes

For Israel:

• The demand that the hostages’ remains—three Israelis and one Thai—be returned before any leniency is shown.
• Avoiding a precedent of militants being allowed to reintegrate into fighting forces.
• Maintaining deterrence: surrender means prison, not freedom.

For the U.S.:

• Building a template for Gaza’s “day after” security architecture: disarm, evacuate, supervise.
• Preventing humanitarian fallout from long sieges.
• Pressing Israel for flexibility as part of ongoing ceasefire and truce diplomacy with Egypt and Qatar.

The Options on the Table

1. Israeli-style unconditional surrender – Fighters exit unarmed, enter Israeli custody, and face prosecution or long-term detention. Highest leverage but slow and risky if Hamas resists.
2. U.S.-style supervised safe passage – Fighters disarm and move under third-party custody, such as Egypt, Qatar, or a UN mechanism. Swift but vulnerable to abuse or re-mobilisation.
3. Protracted siege and attrition – Isolate the enclave, deny supplies, and wait them out. Minimises Israeli casualties but invites international criticism.
4. Engineering neutralisation – Collapse tunnels or cut oxygen lines to force capitulation. Decisive, but forfeits intelligence and may spark humanitarian backlash.
5. Hybrid deal tied to hostages’ remains – Limited safe passage only after verified recovery of the four bodies. Could resolve a moral imperative but sets a complicated precedent.

Why It Matters

This tunnel standoff is a test case for post-war governance in Gaza. If Israel allows a broad safe exit without custody, public trust—especially among hostage families—will collapse. If Washington fails to nudge Israel toward a controlled disarmament scheme, the chance for a sustainable stabilisation model disappears. Hamas, for its part, is studying the standoff closely: whichever side prevails will set the precedent for future surrenders.

Likely Endgame

Everything depends on whether Hamas provides credible information on the remains of the three Israelis and the Thai national. If it does, Israel might permit a tightly managed evacuation under custody. If not, expect Israel to tighten the siege, collapse tunnels, and insist on unconditional surrender while the U.S. ramps up diplomatic pressure. The resolution will reveal whether Gaza’s next phase begins through coercion or negotiation—and whether any path to disarmament can coexist with justice for the murdered hostages.