Tehran’s defiance intensifies pressure on Jerusalem and tests US-Israel alliance under Trump. Will the Israelis finally be let off the American leash before Iran gets a working nuke? Will the US beef up the stike to bust the bunkers with their mountain-blasting Mother of all Bombs? Or will the Americans demand indefinite Israeli patience till a more “appropriate” moment?

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s categorical rejection of the revised U.S. nuclear deal—transmitted via Oman—marks more than a diplomatic impasse. It may represent the moment Israel’s strategic patience finally reaches its limit.

The Supreme Leader dismissed the American demand to allow but cap uranium enrichment as “arrogant” and “imperialist,” insisting, “The enemies focus on enrichment because they know it is the key to our nuclear power.” He added defiantly, “The Islamic Republic will not give up its rights because of Western threats.”

For Israel, the threat is no longer theoretical.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long stated that Israel “will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.” In private, Netanyahu has told both U.S. and Israeli officials that Iran’s steady progress toward breakout capacity poses an unacceptable existential threat. Yet despite Israel’s deepening intelligence, cyber, and covert action campaign against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, the key decision—whether to strike overtly—has been deferred repeatedly.

The reason? Washington.

While President Trump has reinstated the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, he has also warned Netanyahu that a direct Israeli strike on Iran would be “very inappropriate to do right now,” emphasizing that the U.S. is close to achieving a diplomatic solution.

This puts Netanyahu in a bind.

On one hand, time is running out. Israeli officials estimate that Iran could reach full weaponization capability within months. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Mossad chief David Barnea have both briefed foreign counterparts that “the window to act is closing.” Iran’s air defenses are improving, and entrenchment in Syria and Lebanon has increased Tehran’s regional deterrent.

On the other hand, Israel values the strategic umbrella of U.S. support—especially in scenarios involving Iranian retaliation via Hezbollah or direct missile exchanges. Without a green light—or at least a yellow—Jerusalem risks a rupture with Washington.

According to diplomatic sources, Israel has presented the U.S. with updated operational plans for striking Iranian nuclear sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. But the Trump administration has refused to commit. Trump’s circle appears more focused on regime collapse through economic pressure than kinetic escalation.

What Comes Next?

Israel’s military doctrine—Ein Breira, “no choice”—suggests that if diplomacy fails, it must act alone. The precedent of the Osirak (Iraq, 1981) and Deir ez-Zor (Syria, 2007) strikes looms large. But Iran is a far more complex and fortified target.

Still, former National Security Advisor Yaakov Amidror warned this week: “The more Iran rejects diplomacy, the more justified and necessary an Israeli operation becomes. The world must not expect us to live under the shadow of annihilation.”

The alternative—continued restraint while Iran inches closer to the bomb—may no longer be politically or militarily sustainable. Netanyahu’s coalition, especially its right-wing and religious factions, is already signaling that the time for action is near.

Whether Israel strikes alone, or with quiet American backing, may depend less on what happens in Tehran—and more on what’s said behind closed doors in Washington.