On eve of Benjamin Netanyahu’s state visit early next week, Trump offers personal guarantees to work for an end to the Gaza war, but Israel insists on destroying Hamas and resuming war if the group resists full dismantlement and leaders are not removed from the Strip. As usual, the sides wait for the official response of the terror group, which seems pressed to agree with Iran now weakened.

A new ceasefire and hostage-release framework between Israel and Hamas has advanced further than any since the October 7th war began. After intense negotiations brokered by the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar—and now actively backed by President Donald Trump—Israel’s security cabinet has approved the outline, signaling tactical openness to a two-month pause in fighting. Hamas, for its part, is reportedly “positively inclined” but has yet to issue formal acceptance.

At the heart of the deal is a conditional cessation of hostilities tied to the staged release of hostages and the expectation that Hamas will not survive politically or militarily in the Strip. Israeli officials emphasize that this is not a surrender to international pressure, but a maneuver designed to retrieve hostages and, if Hamas fails to comply with dismantlement terms, justify a renewed offensive with broader international backing.

Key Terms of the Deal

• Phase 1 (60 days): A full ceasefire begins with the release of living hostages—believed to number approximately 20—followed by the staged return of deceased hostages’ bodies. Israel will gradually pull troops out of urban centers, maintaining a defensive presence around critical corridors. Israel must decide the delicate issue of the order of releases of the hostages, all men of military age.
• Humanitarian acceleration: Aid flows into Gaza will be dramatically increased and tightly monitored, coordinated with the IDF and COGAT, to address civilian needs while preventing materials from reaching remaining Hamas holdouts.
• Trump-led guarantees: President Trump has publicly endorsed the deal and is reportedly offering U.S. guarantees to ensure compliance, marking a shift from the previous administration’s cautious detachment.
• Post-war Gaza framework: Discussions will commence on transferring Gaza’s civil administration to a non-Hamas entity. The emphasis is on exile of remaining Hamas leaders, and verifiable dismantlement of Hamas’ command structure and preventing any resurgence.

Why Israel Approved

For Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, the deal provides a chance to bring hostages home and reduce international isolation, all without compromising on war aims. Trump’s renewed presence in the White House gives Israel more confidence that U.S. guarantees will be meaningful—especially in contrast to the arms-pressure tactics used by the Biden administration.

Netanyahu has also secured internal agreement that if Hamas breaches any stage of the deal—or stalls disarmament—Israel will resume combat operations at full force.

“The war is not over. This is a conditional pause, not a conclusion,” an Israeli official told Israel Hayom. “If Hamas plays games, we go back in harder and finish the mission.”

Pros for Israel

• Hostage recovery: Brings home the remaining living hostages while offering closure to families of the deceased.
• Tactical reset: Allows the IDF to regroup, repair, and resupply without conceding defeat or territory.
• International optics: Positions Israel as acting in good faith, increasing diplomatic support in the event of resumed fighting.
• U.S. coordination: Trump’s involvement adds a layer of accountability and diplomatic pressure on Hamas.

Cons and Risks

• Hamas regrouping: Sixty days is ample time for the terror group to rearm, reposition fighters, and manipulate international mechanisms.
• Collapse of deterrence: A visible pause without a visible Hamas collapse could embolden Hezbollah or Iran-backed groups.
• Political cost: Far-right ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have threatened to exit the coalition, leaving Netanyahu to depend on centrist opposition votes. But because the Knesset is in summer rececess, there is no urgent time pressure om Netanyahu because his government cannot collapse.
• Diplomatic trap: Once the ceasefire takes hold, Israel may face rising international pressure not to resume fighting—even if Hamas violates terms subtly.

What Can Go Wrong

The deal hinges on Hamas following through with steps that have historically been non-starters: full disarmament, cessation of smuggling tunnels, and relinquishing political control. If any of these elements are undermined or delayed, Israel would be forced to resume hostilities under more complicated diplomatic conditions.

Moreover, Hamas may try to prolong the ceasefire without true compliance, hoping that international inertia will prevent Israel from acting. If the Trump-backed guarantees falter, Israel could find itself fighting a final war for Gaza without global support.

Conclusion

Israel has agreed to test this path not because it trusts Hamas—but because it trusts its own power to return to war if the deal fails. The goals remain unchanged: eliminate Hamas as a governing or military force, secure the release of every last hostage, and ensure that Gaza no longer serves as a launching pad for terror. If this framework accelerates that end, Israel is willing to try. If not, the IDF stands ready.