Weapons shipments, Iran concerns, and Gaza evacuation plans fuel speculation of imminent escalation and unprecedented US-Israel coordination

On February 15, 2025, Hamas released three Israeli hostages—Sagui Dekel-Chen, Alexander Troufanov, and Iair Horn—after 497 days in captivity. In return, Israel freed 369 Palestinian prisoners. While the exchange was celebrated as a rare moment of relief for the hostages’ families, security officials in Israel treated it as little more than a tactical pause in an ongoing war.

Horn’s release was accompanied by a staged Hamas propaganda stunt, forcing him to hold an hourglass over a photo of fellow hostage Matan Zangauker with the message “time is running out,” signaling Hamas’s intention to manipulate future talks with psychological pressure. Israeli officials dismissed the theatrics as “terrorist theater,” but within Israel’s defense establishment, the message was not lost—Hamas was buying time, not making peace.

The February 15 release was part of the first phase of a ceasefire agreement brokered on January 19. The deal was designed as a three-stage process, with the initial 42-day period focusing on phased hostage swaps and humanitarian aid to Gaza. However, sources close to the Israeli security cabinet indicate that Hamas has already begun backpedaling, slowing the release process while escalating demands.

Defense Minister Israel Katz did not mince words: “Every delay, every stunt, is another reason why we will ultimately have to finish the job in Gaza.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, under growing pressure from hostage families and right-wing coalition partners, issued a public warning: “Unless Hamas returns our hostages by noon on Saturday, the ceasefire will end, and the IDF will resume intensive fighting until Hamas is totally defeated.”

While Hamas met part of the deadline, returning three captives, the broader demand for the release of all remaining hostages has gone unmet. Israeli officials view the partial compliance as another stalling tactic.

Parallel to the hostage developments, the Israeli military is visibly preparing for the collapse of the ceasefire. The IDF has reinforced its presence along the Gaza border, with armored brigades repositioned and reservists called back into active duty. Defense planners see two possible flashpoints: a rapid offensive to force Hamas into further concessions or a broader campaign to complete the dismantling of Hamas’s remaining military infrastructure—particularly its vast tunnel network.

One development with potentially far-reaching consequences is Israel’s push for voluntary Palestinian emigration from Gaza. Defense Minister Katz confirmed that the IDF had been instructed to formulate a plan enabling Gazans “who wish to leave to do so, to any country willing to receive them.” Though criticized internationally, the idea has the backing of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has spoken openly about the need to “rebuild Gaza from scratch.”

U.S.-Israeli cooperation is at an all-time high. On February 16, the Biden-era freeze on arms shipments was formally overturned, with a shipment of MK-84 2,000-pound bombs and other precision munitions arriving at an Israeli airbase. These weapons, capable of penetrating deeply buried targets, are viewed as a potential green light for renewed operations in Gaza—or, significantly, a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.

U.S. intelligence sources indicate that Israel’s window for military action against Iran is narrowing, with Tehran reportedly months away from crossing a nuclear threshold. Israeli officials have refused to comment publicly, but National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir hinted at broader plans, stating, “Our enemies know—this government will not hesitate to act wherever necessary.”

With the March 2 end of the ceasefire’s first phase fast approaching, security analysts predict a decisive week. Either Hamas accelerates hostage releases, or Israel will move swiftly—potentially both in Gaza and beyond.

“The feeling inside the defense establishment is that we are close to a critical point,” a senior security source noted privately. “Whether it’s Rafah, Khan Yunis, or Natanz in Iran, something is going to break soon.”