Hamas isn’t planning on releasing hostages anytime soon — and that means no ceasefire, and no prisoners home, no matter what Trump says. Despite White House optimism and Netanyahu’s cautious approval of the Trump plan, Hamas’ Tehran envoy makes clear: the terror group won’t compromise — and Israel won’t either.
President Donald Trump is still projecting confidence. Standing before reporters on October 5, he said, “Israel has agreed to the withdrawal line. Once Hamas confirms, the ceasefire will be immediately effective, the hostages and prisoner exchange will begin.” His tone was triumphant, echoing Washington’s hope that a historic breakthrough is finally within reach. He keeps tweeting away, but it doesn’t change the reality. His 20-point plan is going south.
Forty-eight hours later, no breakthrough is in sight, though you’ll be hard-pressed to find an Israeli official who dares to say so. After Trump told Bibi, in leaks from a private call over the weekend, “Don’t be so fucking negative!,” who can blame him ?Meanwhile, after its initial ambiguous response, which Trump chose to take as a “Yes” for “peace,” Hamas has remained silent on the plan’s core terms.
On the same day Trump declared civilizational progress not seem in three thousand years, he also issued a threat, the latest in a long time of warnings of opening Gates of Hell, echoed by Israeli leaders. “If Hamas refuses to comply,” he warned, “it will face complete obliteration.” That stark language underscored how little patience remains in Washington — and how wide the gulf is between American optimism and regional reality.
Hamas’ silence speaks volumes
In Tehran, Hamas representatives have avoided restating the red-line declaration issued last week, but the organization’s posture has not changed. The group still insists on a full Israeli withdrawal, open crossings, unfettered humanitarian aid, and Gaza’s reconstruction before it will discuss political arrangements or prisoner exchanges. Its refusal to confirm Trump’s sequencing — ceasefire first, politics later — signals that Hamas is not negotiating in the same framework Washington assumes.
Reports from Cairo and Beirut describe Hamas envoys coordinating closely with Iranian and Hezbollah intermediaries. Israeli intelligence sources say this alignment “eliminates any realistic short-term opening,” as Tehran seeks confrontation, not calm. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reiterated on October 5 that “resistance is the only path to liberation; negotiation before withdrawal is betrayal.” Those words mirror Hamas’ own formula almost word for word.
Netanyahu’s impossible balancing act
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for his part, has walked a tightrope. Publicly, he affirms support for Trump’s peace push, calling it “an effort to secure Israel’s interests and bring every hostage home.” Privately, his coalition is in revolt.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened to bolt if Netanyahu concedes any authority in Gaza. Smotrich denounced the plan as “a dangerous mirage that rewards terror.” Ben-Gvir vowed to bring down the government if the IDF pulls out “even one meter before Hamas is destroyed.”
The new IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, has reinforced that hard line. In remarks cited by Israeli media, he told commanders that the army’s mission “remains victory — not management.” Zamir emphasized that no ceasefire could stand “while Hamas retains control of any security structure in Gaza.”
Even within the war cabinet, dissent is growing. Opposition Leader Yair Lapid said on Sunday that “Trump’s plan deserves consideration,” but added that “Hamas’ conduct shows we are not yet in the post-war phase.” His statement captured the national mood — deep exhaustion, but no trust.
Washington’s optimism collides with Israeli and Arab skepticism
The White House insists the deal is within reach. A senior U.S. official said the administration “expects both sides to commit in principle within days.” But neither side has done so.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking on Fox News Sunday, underlined the American condition: “It can’t be Hamas; it can’t be a terrorist organization. It has to be governed.” That statement, while unambiguous, renders Hamas’ continued participation self-contradictory — the U.S. is effectively demanding a deal that excludes the party it’s negotiating with.
Arab mediators, meanwhile, are tempering expectations. Egyptian officials said Hamas’ “response remains incomplete” and that “the sequencing problem persists.” Qatari envoys echoed the same point: until there is clarity on withdrawal and governance, “talk of a final deal is premature.”
No path to peace under current terms
Taken together, the past two days have stripped away illusions. The Trump administration’s “20-point plan” may exist on paper, but the actors on the ground are fighting over the very first step. Hamas refuses to move until Israel withdraws; Israel refuses to withdraw until Hamas disarms; the U.S. demands both to happen at once.
The situation leaves Netanyahu trapped between Washington’s pressure and domestic fury, while Hamas basks in Iran’s ideological backing. Every statement from Tehran or Jerusalem confirms the same dynamic — two sides waiting for the other to blink.
The likely outcome, according to most Israeli analysts, is not a negotiated peace but a prolonged confrontation punctuated by tactical pauses: brief ceasefires for humanitarian relief or hostage swaps, followed by renewed hostilities. As one Israeli official said on Sunday, “There is no magic middle. Either Hamas survives, or it doesn’t.”
The grim reality
Trump’s pronouncements of imminent peace may please global headlines, but they rest on assumptions detached from facts. Hamas has not budged. Iran is spoiling for confrontation. Netanyahu cannot afford political collapse. And Israel’s military, now under Zamir, is preparing for a decisive next phase.
For now, diplomacy remains a public performance played to audiences in Washington and Doha. The reality in Gaza — and in Israel’s cabinet rooms — tells a harder story: the war is far from over, and peace is nowhere in sight. the grim truth stands: Hamas isn’t budging, and that means all-out war, not peace — no matter what Trump says.
Hardly a surprise! 1400 yrs of history should’ve made it clear to ALL that Hamas is not going to change its stance!