Lt.-Col. (res.) Dahoah-Halevi at JCPA says signs were clear but unheeded. The messages are chilling to read.
Had Israel closely monitored posts on Hamas-affiliated Telegram channels in the weeks leading up to the October 7 massacre, the outcome might have been starkly different, argued Lt.-Col. (res.) Jonathan Dahoah-Halevi in a recent analysis published by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.
Central to Dahoah-Halevi’s findings is Maam Rashid al-Masri, known as “Abu Hafs,” a Hamas Nukhba operative who managed the Telegram channel “Military Tactics” and co-founded the “Al-Qassam Brigades Dispatch” channel. These channels, far from being obscure, were openly accessible and disseminated professional military content.
“The ‘Military Tactics’ channel was more than propaganda,” Dahoah-Halevi explained. “It shared Al-Qassam Brigades’ professional literature, including detailed guides on precision shooting, sniping, camouflage, infiltration, ambushes, and operational maneuvers.” The posts revealed Hamas’s operational capabilities and readiness, laying bare their preparations to those willing to look.
Threatening Posts Preceded the Massacre
Warnings escalated weeks before October 7. On September 17, the Al-Qassam Brigades declared, “Expect a major security event soon.” The following day, they issued a chilling threat to Gaza border residents: “Before it’s too late, flee and leave […] nothing will help you except escape.”
The rhetoric sharpened further. On September 19, Hamas’s posts read: “The enemy does not understand the language of words, so we speak to him in the language of fire and hell,” foreshadowing unprecedented violence. By September 21, another post stated, “The decision has been made,” promising to render Gaza’s border areas “uninhabitable.”
As October 7 approached, the threats became increasingly explicit. On September 29, Hamas issued an “urgent call” for confrontation “at all points of contact.” A September 30 post urged: “Be on alert; the time is near,” followed by an ominous October 1 message: “Our silence will not last […] time is running out.”
Chilling Warnings Hours Before the Attack
In the early hours of October 7, “Military Tactics” issued a series of posts, beginning at 12:20 a.m., that should have raised alarm bells. Statements included:
- “We say to the Zionist enemy, [the operation] coming your way has never been experienced by anyone.”
- “There are many, many, many surprises.”
- “We swear by Allah, we will humiliate you and utterly destroy you.”
- “The pure rifles are loaded, and your heads are the target.”
The final warning, at 12:26 a.m., read: “You have been warned. What is coming will be immense,” adorned with symbols of fire and a green heart, both emblematic of Hamas and Islam.
Opportunity Missed
Dahoah-Halevi underscored that these posts, if analyzed effectively, could have provided actionable intelligence to avert the attack. “This was not cryptic,” he emphasized. “The writing was on the wall.”
Israel’s intelligence community has faced criticism for failing to recognize the significance of these warnings. While the hindsight is harrowing, Dahoah-Halevi’s analysis points to the critical need for improved monitoring and interpretation of openly available enemy communications.
By ignoring these glaring signals, a devastating massacre unfolded—a stark reminder of the importance of proactive intelligence in combating terrorism.