Israel’s massive military buildup may signal a final offensive—or a psychological maneuver to force Hamas into a hostage deal, as most Gazans reportedly wish to flee.

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The Israeli government has greenlit Operation Gideon’s Chariots, an expansive military campaign that signals a potential turning point in the Gaza conflict. Designed to achieve “total victory” over Hamas, the plan outlines not only a renewed ground invasion but a long-term Israeli military presence in parts of Gaza. Tens of thousands of reservists have already been mobilized, and combat engineering units are preparing for what may be the most extensive campaign since October 7.

Yet as preparations intensify, so do questions—both inside the security establishment and among close observers—about whether the threat of invasion is genuine or a high-stakes bluff intended to pressure Hamas into agreeing to a hostage release. This week Israel admitted that only 21 of the hostages are believed to be alive. 3 others, an Israeli and two foreigners, have had no signs of life.

A senior IDF official, speaking to Israeli journalists on condition of anonymity, described the situation as “fluid and strategic,” adding, “This operation is ready to go, but we’re also keenly aware of the psychological impact it has on the enemy. If Hamas feels the noose tightening, it may act to avoid total collapse.” A Western diplomat close to Egyptian mediation efforts echoed the sentiment: “Israel wants its hostages home. This could be real war—or a real threat of war used to break the impasse.”

Defense Minister Israel Katz has insisted otherwise. “This is no bluff. Wherever our forces go, they will stay. We will not allow Hamas to return and rebuild. We are not playing games,” he declared in a statement Tuesday.

The operation’s name, Gideon’s Chariots, alludes to the biblical warrior Gideon who overcame overwhelming odds with divine help and decisive force. The symbolism suggests that Israel sees this phase not as another raid, but a transformative blow aimed at permanently disabling Hamas and reshaping Gaza’s future.

According to leaked outlines of the plan, the IDF would execute the operation in three phases: initial aerial and special forces strikes, followed by a sweeping ground maneuver, and concluding with a stabilization period involving military administration and localized humanitarian zones under IDF control. Civilian population centers would be depopulated and reorganized into buffer zones to prevent terrorist regrouping.

However, multiple signs point to a psychological component behind the massive show of force. Israeli media reports confirm that Hamas has renewed talks on hostage release, even as ceasefire negotiations remain stalled. Some intelligence analysts believe that the announcement of Gideon’s Chariots may serve to raise the cost of intransigence for Hamas, especially amid fears that internal dissent within Gaza could erupt into open revolt.

Supporting this pressure strategy is new polling from the Washington Institute, which shows that over 60% of Gazans would emigrate permanently if given the opportunity. The survey, conducted in early 2025, suggests profound public despair in the Strip and undermines the popular Western narrative that Palestinians overwhelmingly support Hamas. “This data confirms what many of us suspected,” said Michael Singh, the Institute’s managing director. “Gaza is a prison not just in the physical sense, but a psychological one as well. People want out.”

That data plays directly into Israel’s hands. A senior Israeli official told Channel 12 that “If Hamas understood how hated they are by their own people, they would give up the hostages today to avoid a mutiny.” The IDF, he added, “is ready to go in and finish this—but if Hamas folds first, that’s fine too.”

Still, the cost of bluffing is real. If Gideon’s Chariots fails to materialize after such a dramatic buildup, Israel’s credibility could be undermined and Hamas emboldened. For now, the tanks are moving, the drones are in the air, and the clock is ticking.

Whether this is the prelude to total war or a chess move for leverage, both sides understand that the stakes are existential—and time is running out.