Could manmade aerosols prevent global warming?

Feb 2, 2025 7:51 am | Israel21c

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El Niño may have subsided, but “the temperature is not going down — it’s just stabilizing, and that is very alarming,” warns Prof. Daniel Rosenfeld, a climate change expert from the Institute of Earth Sciences at Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

“There is something else going on, and we don’t know what it is.”

His stark assessment of the climate crisis comes amidst a backdrop of record-breaking temperatures and a new survey revealing widespread public concern about climate change in Israel.

In a recent interview, Rosenfeld highlighted the complexities of the current climate situation. 

He explains that natural fluctuations certainly play a role in shifting temperatures — such as El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, which can significantly raise temperatures, and impact weather patterns worldwide. 

But he emphasized that the warming trend is persisting even as El Niño has subsided. 

One unintended contributing factor, he suggests, could ironically be the consequences of our efforts to improve air quality by reducing aerosol emissions which cause air pollution, and are seriously detrimental to our health.

Pollution vs. cooling

“We are cleaning the atmosphere,” he notes, referring to regulations that have reduced aerosol emissions from sources like ocean freighters. 

And while this good because it will mean a reduction in air pollution, Rosenfeld says that aerosols also have a potential cooling effect on the planet.

“When these anthropogenic [manmade] aerosols interact with clouds, they make them produce a larger number of smaller droplets, which gives the clouds a larger integrated surface area that reflects more solar radiation back to space,” he explains.

As such, recent regulations aimed at improving air quality may therefore be inadvertently contributing to warming by reducing this reflective effect.

Could aerosol-boosted clouds act as a climate change buffer? Photo by Pexels
Could aerosol-boosted clouds act as a climate change buffer? Photo by Pexels

Rosenfeld’s concerns are further amplified by the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across the globe. 

“We see that extreme weather events have become more frequent,” he observes, citing “extreme floods, strong hurricanes and heatwaves.”

He warns that the world is already reaching the critical 1.5°C warming threshold set by the Paris Agreement – a level not anticipated for several more years. 

“We have missed this train,” he laments, cautioning that “at the end of the century, we may have a world that is warmer by three to four degrees than it was during the industrial era.”

Israelis echo concerns

Rosenfeld’s warnings resonate with the findings of a new survey conducted by the National Institute for Climate and Environmental Policy at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev.

The survey reveals that a significant majority (77%) of Israelis are concerned about climate change. This concern transcends political affiliations, with 72% of right-wing voters and 89% of left-wing voters expressing anxiety about the changing climate.

The survey also highlights a growing public understanding of the manmade nature of the climate crisis, with high trust placed in scientists and a willingness to adopt more environmentally friendly behaviors.

Rosenfeld, while acknowledging the uncertainties inherent in climate modeling, emphasizes the urgency of the situation. 

He calls for increased research to better understand the complex interplay of factors driving the accelerated warming trend. Hence his current academic endeavors in researching manmade aerosols’ effects on the weather.

He says that through learning more about the way that these substances impact clouds, precipitation, water cycles and energy budgets, he hopes to achieve two goals: “One, to decrease the uncertainty of [short-term] weather forecasts; and two, to decrease inaccuracies in climate predictions. 

“From that, we may find out more that we can do proactively to have a desirable climatic impact by controlling our emissions in a beneficial way.”

Prof. Danny Rosenfeld believes there’s still a lot to understand about how manmade aerosols impact the climate. Photo by Polina Tankilevitch via Pexels

The post Could manmade aerosols prevent global warming? appeared first on ISRAEL21c.

Prof. Danny Rosenfeld believes there’s still a lot to understand about how manmade aerosols impact the climate. Photo by Polina Tankilevitch via Pexels

The post Could manmade aerosols prevent global warming? appeared first on ISRAEL21c.

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