Hostage negotations continue under fire: Israeli proposal, consistent with Witkoff plan, would see staged release of half of remaining living and deceased captives over 40-50 days. Meanwhile, IDF forces are poised to pour into Gaza north, south and center.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) today issued unexpected evacuation orders for the majority of Rafah, the last major Hamas stronghold in southern Gaza. The orders are part of a larger campaign to dismantle the remaining military infrastructure of Hamas while simultaneously pressing for the release of Israeli hostages still held in the Strip since October 7.

Residents in the eastern neighborhoods of Rafah received text messages and flyers instructing them to relocate back to the coastal Al-Mawasi zone, designated by the IDF as a humanitarian area. According to the Israeli military, this step is intended to minimize civilian casualties ahead of the next phase of ground operations. Israeli officials stressed that the IDF will proceed with targeted strikes and a potential full-scale ground incursion into Rafah unless Hamas complies with both military and diplomatic demands.

At the same time, as intensified fire continues, Israel is actively pursuing a new truce proposal through mediators in Qatar, Egypt, and the United States. Under the current framework, Hamas would release half of the estimated 24 living hostages and return the bodies of half of the 35 hostages believed to be deceased, over a 40 to 50-day pause in fighting. The Israeli proposal represents a shift from prior frameworks that sought an “all-for-all” deal. Instead, Jerusalem is now seeking an incremental agreement that would allow for sustained military pressure during negotiations.

In response to Hamas’s offer to release just five hostages in exchange for a ceasefire, Israeli negotiators countered with a demand for at least 10 to 12. Israeli officials have publicly stated that the military campaign in Rafah will not pause unless a significant number of hostages are released immediately. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of the security cabinet continue to insist that military operations are necessary to apply pressure on Hamas, whose leadership remains entrenched in Rafah.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in southern Gaza remains dire. According to Israeli estimates, over 1.4 million Palestinians have crowded into Rafah since IDF operations began in northern and central Gaza. The Al-Mawasi zone—where residents have now been instructed to flee—is equipped with temporary shelters and basic aid stations, but international agencies have raised concerns about food and medical shortages. Nonetheless, Israeli sources emphasize that coordination with international partners, including the UN and the Red Crescent, remains ongoing to allow humanitarian access and reduce non-combatant harm.

IDF Spokesperson said that the goal is to “neutralize Hamas battalions operating in Rafah” while simultaneously creating conditions for a “broad-based hostage recovery.” Military planners have identified Rafah as the last obstacle before achieving Israel’s war objectives: eliminating Hamas’s capacity to govern and wage war.

Within Israel, the public debate continues to rage over the pace of hostage negotiations and the government’s dual-track strategy of force and diplomacy. Protests resumed in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem over the weekend, with families of hostages demanding action. Yet recent polls show strong public support for continuing operations in Rafah, especially if they result in the recovery of captives. Most of the public releases that there is no alternative to sustained and intensified offensives to eradicate Hamas and bring home the hostages.

As of this writing, ceasefire negotiations continue behind closed doors, with Israeli intelligence assessing that Hamas feels pressure. While no final agreement has been reached, senior Israeli officials remain cautiously optimistic that a multi-phase hostage release may still be achievable under sustained military threat.