How extreme economic and security dependency, and the role of Trump, could either erode Israeli sovereignty or catapult it into expanded regional hegemony. Perhaps both.

History teaches that nations often lose their independence gradually—not just through conflict but also through economic dependence, strategic alliances, and subtle political integration. Israel, celebrated globally as the “Startup Nation” for technological innovation, particularly in cybersecurity and artificial intelligence, increasingly finds itself in a quiet but consequential American embrace.

Israel’s robust technology sector, globally renowned for its innovation, agility, and resilience, has become deeply intertwined with American interests. Prominent acquisitions of Israeli companies by American tech giants—including Google, Microsoft, Intel, and Apple—symbolize more than mere economic opportunity; they represent a subtle transfer of strategic and economic decision-making power from Tel Aviv to Silicon Valley.

Parallel to economic integration is the profound entanglement of Israel’s security apparatus, especially its world-leading cybersecurity industry, with American defense strategies. Israeli cybersecurity firms routinely collaborate with U.S. defense and intelligence agencies, aligning critical national security infrastructure with American priorities. While enhancing capabilities, this deep integration also quietly transfers vital security decisions to Washington.

The gradual American influence in Israel mirrors ancient Judea’s experience under Roman rule. Initially independent following the Maccabean revolt, Judea incrementally lost autonomy through dependence on Roman economic and military support, culminating in full annexation in 6 CE. Modern Israel risks following a similar trajectory, where strategic and economic decisions progressively shift toward American influence.

Trump: Modern-Day Herod or Hero? Or Both?

Adding complexity to this analogy is former U.S. President Donald Trump, known for his strong support of Israel. Trump’s policies, particularly moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing the Golan Heights as Israeli territory, were celebrated by many Israelis as historic acts of support. Like King Herod the Great, Trump is often viewed as a great “builder”—though symbolic rather than physical—constructing diplomatic edifices that altered geopolitical realities.

Yet, Herod the Great was both revered and reviled—celebrated for his monumental reconstruction of the Second Temple, yet also seen as a figure who deepened Judea’s reliance on Roman favor. Similarly, Trump’s initiatives significantly strengthened U.S.-Israel ties but also potentially deepened Israel’s economic and strategic dependency on America. The parallels between Herod the Builder and Trump the Builder of geopolitical “temples” prompt reflection: Does Trump’s legacy strengthen Israel’s autonomy, or does it subtly render Israel more dependent, echoing Herod’s role as a client king?

Pros and Cons of Becoming a U.S. State

Considering the possibility of Israel formally becoming a U.S. state illuminates significant benefits and severe risks:

Pros:

• Immediate economic prosperity through direct access to America’s extensive market.
• Guaranteed military protection under American defense infrastructure.
• Increased diplomatic clout within the global community.
• Economic stability via integration into the U.S. currency and financial systems.

Risks and Downsides:

• Loss of national identity, cultural distinctiveness, and religious autonomy.
• Dramatic reduction in political and strategic sovereignty, especially in security and defense matters.
• Vulnerability to U.S. political volatility, potentially undermining Israeli interests.
• Risk of entanglement in international conflicts dictated by American foreign policy.

Canada, Greenland, and the Lessons for Israel

Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, recently found itself targeted by Trump’s overt attempts at acquisition, highlighting how strategic interest from major powers can challenge smaller territories’ autonomy. Greenland resisted American overtures, maintaining its independence and demonstrating to Israel the importance of firm boundaries in preserving sovereignty.

Canada’s deeply integrated yet independent relationship with America further illustrates the delicate balance Israel faces. Canada’s significant economic and security ties with the U.S. deliver prosperity and stability but at the expense of vulnerability to American economic fluctuations and geopolitical decisions. Israel’s dependency surpasses Canada’s, given its critical security situation, making it even more susceptible to losing strategic flexibility. But in the post-Trudeau, pre-tariff interregnum, who knows what will be, eh?

Gaza, Judea, and Jerusalem: Incremental Dependency

Historical precedents in Israel reflect a gradual pattern of control, starting from peripheral areas like Gaza, moving inward to Judea, and culminating symbolically in Jerusalem. Today, this sequence metaphorically represents Israel’s evolving relationship with the U.S.: first startups and investments (Gaza), then core technology sectors (Judea), and finally, critical national security decisions and political sovereignty (Jerusalem).

Israel’s unique status further intensifies this vulnerability. Despite its modest size, Israel possesses significant military capabilities, including (some say) nuclear deterrence. Yet paradoxically, this intense strength increases dependency, with American diplomatic and military backing critical to Israel’s global standing and security posture. Yet Israel remains existentially vulnerable (as per 10/7 and what followed) and internally divided. Yet its regional dominance, with American backing, has never been more pronounced.

Startup Nation or American State: A Momentous Decision

Israel stands now at a strategic crossroads, balancing immediate economic and security benefits against long-term risks to sovereignty. The Startup Nation must decide whether the American embrace represents a supportive alliance or the quiet erosion of national autonomy, a bear hug that could smother the fledgling state with all of its adolescent growing pains.

As ancient Judea gradually fell under Roman domination, modern Israel faces similar risks through its expanding American integration. The historical analogy of Trump as a modern Herod—building impressive and symbolically powerful ties (and potentially a Gaza Riviera and Third Temple) yet compromising long-term independence—poses profound and troubling questions for Israel’s future.

Will Israel become another territory quietly absorbed and acquired by into America’s sphere of influence? Or has that already happened while we were sleeping or sleepwalking into dependency?

The choice Israel makes today will define its identity and independence for generations.