One month after recognizing Somaliland, it is clear: The Red Sea is existential to Israel’s security and economy. If Jerusalem does not actively shape the emerging regional order, others—Turkey, Iran, China and their proxies—will. Recognition of Somaliland must be more than a symbolic gesture; it should be the first step in a deliberate strategy, with Israel expanding and consolidating its regional alliances.

The 2026 U.S. National Security Strategy barely mentions Africa. American attention, resources and political will in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea basin are rapidly declining. That vacuum is now being filled by assertive regional powers, Iran and Turkey, and their proxies, while increasingly rival Gulf States cannot compete with them. Therefore, Israel must take the lead in the rapidly shifting Red Sea region.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bold recognition of Somaliland must be understood not as a symbolic gesture, but as a calculated first move in an emerging post-American regional order. By acting before others, Israel positions itself to shape the Red Sea’s post-American balance. Whether this move stabilizes the Horn of Africa and advances Israel’s strategic objectives will depend entirely on how Jerusalem extends and consolidates its regional partnerships.

Israel’s recognition of Somaliland was the right decision—morally, legally and strategically. Like most African states, it is a product of colonial borders. Once a distinct British protectorate, it gained independence in 1960 and entered into a voluntary union with Italian Somalia that later collapsed. When Somalia disintegrated, Somaliland reasserted its sovereignty. Under international law and the principle of self-determination, its claim is no weaker than that of many recognized states.

Moreover, it has built relative stability, conducted elections, maintained internal security and governed effectively—without international recognition or large-scale aid. Yet its internal tribal fragility cannot be ignored. The eastern regions of Sool, Sanaag and Cayn (SSC)—roughly 40% of Somaliland and dominated by Darod clans—remain largely opposed to Somaliland’s independence, creating a structural vulnerability.

Since Israel’s recognition, Somaliland has been exposed to pressure from multiple directions, including Arab League hostility and African Union resistance. Turkey-backed Somalia to the east weaponizes the Darod clans of the SSC region. The deployment of Turkish F-16s to Mogadishu, Somalia’s ban on Israeli flights, and the elevation of a Turkish-trained army chief send a clear message: Hargeisa and Jerusalem will pay a price for independent action.

China-backed Djibouti to the west—leveraging the Issa clan and instigating border war—has canceled the passports of Somaliland officials and shut its liaison office. Somaliland’s unofficial ties with Taiwan place it directly in Beijing’s crosshairs, as China enforces its “one-Somalia” doctrine in lockstep with its “one-China” policy.

Furthermore, Al‑Shabaab is poised to exploit Israel’s recognition as an ideological rallying point, framing Somaliland as a frontline in “anti‑Israel resistance.” The group benefits from backing by the Eritrean dictator, Iran and the Houthis, gaining manpower and technology. Thousands of Somali soldiers trained by Eritrea’s dictator to reinforce Mogadishu are believed to have defected to Al-Shabaab, while the Houthis funnel Iranian weapons and technology to the insurgency.

Without active support, Somaliland risks becoming a full-fledged proxy battleground. Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates—Somaliland’s important external supporters—have deliberately avoided formal recognition. Ethiopia’s caution reflects its own internal fractures, African Union politics and sensitivity to Turkish and Chinese influence. As host of the A.U. headquarters, Ethiopia cannot afford the perception of endorsing secession.

The UAE, despite being Somaliland’s largest investor, faces constraints of its own. Recognition would risk alienating the Arab League and broader Islamic coalitions at a delicate moment. Neither Ethiopia nor the UAE is prepared to lead.

Meanwhile, the United States remains committed, at least formally, to Somalia’s territorial integrity due to its counterterrorism partnership against Al-Shabaab, despite strong internal calls to recognize Somaliland. This leaves disproportionate responsibility on Israel.

Israel’s recognition has delivered diplomatic and symbolic gains, but an alliance with Somaliland alone does not shift the balance against the Houthis. Airstrikes and naval operations have already reached their limits—the Houthis cannot be defeated from the air. A ground offensive is required, but Somaliland lacks the military capacity for that. Israel, therefore, needs regional partners with the capability and the strategic will to act.

The path forward lies in regional alliance-building. Eritrea—the homeland of the indigenous Tigrinya nation, with deep Orit/Torah heritage and historic affinity with the Jewish people—is central to any Red Sea strategy. Eritrea’s geography, military capacity and strategic interests make it uniquely capable of defeating the Houthis. At present, while Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki oppresses the Tigrinya nation, is hostile to Israel and the United States, and closely aligned with Iran, political change in Eritrea is inevitable.

Alongside Somaliland, Ethiopia and the UAE, an Eritrea restored as the nation-state of the Tigrinya people could anchor a new Red Sea security architecture. The Eritrean army, potentially reinforced by Ethiopian forces, would supply the essential ground capability, backed by Israeli and NATO air and naval power. Without credible ground forces, the Houthis cannot be defeated, and Somaliland will grow increasingly vulnerable without Israeli support.

Geography makes the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa too important to ignore. To Israel, the Eritrean dictator is the equivalent of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to the United States, if not worse. He is a brutal ruler who has survived through total media control, narrative monopoly and complete isolation.

Recognizing Somaliland should launch Israel’s long-term strategic alliance in the region—anchoring influence, securing Red Sea trade routes and denying adversaries a permanent launchpad in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea against the Jewish state. This secures Israel’s role as a Red Sea security guarantor in the U.S.-China rivalry.

In the absence of an American role, if Israel does not help shape the emerging order in the Horn of Africa, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea, others—Turkey, Iran, China and their proxies—will fill the vacuum, while rival Gulf States cannot match them.

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