Israeli Military’s Failure and Hamas’s October 7 Surprise Attack: The Writing was on the Wall and Israel Misread It

A report in the New York Times, evidently based on Israeli reporting in the last weeks, has shed light on a critical intelligence failure within the Israeli military establishment concerning Hamas’s battle plan. According to the report, Israeli officials had obtained a detailed, approximately 40-page document outlining a methodical assault planned by Hamas on Israeli soil.

This plan, codenamed “Walls of Jericho,” was dismissed by senior members of the Israeli military and intelligence officials, as aspirational and beyond Hamas’s capabilities. The document detailed a comprehensive strategy, including the use of drones, paragliders, and motorcycles for the attack, as well as the specifics of overwhelming the military base in Re’im​​ as well as other bases that were in fact hit, precisely according to plan.

The extent of this awareness within the political leadership is not entirely clear. However, it is evident that the document circulated widely among Israeli military and intelligence leaders. A report by the IDF’s Gaza division assessed it as a detailed compass of Hamas’s ambitions for the future, rather than an immediate plan of action. This underestimation of Hamas’s capabilities points to a catastrophic military intelligence oversight.

In July 2023, the IDF’s vaunted signal intelligence division, Unit 8200, reported that Hamas had been conducting training exercises that mirrored the blueprint in “Jericho Wall.” Considering its daring and ambitious scope, the report was met with skepticism, with a senior colonel dismissing it as “totally imaginative” and advising the army to “wait patiently.” An internal debate followed, with some endorsements of the analyst’s warning. The lack of heed to these warnings, in hindsight, was compared to the experience of the Yom Kippur War, suggesting a potential repetition of history due to underestimation of threats​​, a prisoner to faulty “concepts.”

“Jericho Wall” was not the first intelligence prompting such a debate. A top-secret memo from the Ministry of Defense in September 2016, signed by then-defense minister Avigdor Lieberman, warned of a potential invasion and hostage-taking operation by Hamas. It outlined Hamas’s procurement of sophisticated weaponry and a significant increase in its fighting force. Despite these warnings, the necessary preventive measures were not fully implemented​​.

Breitbart News echoed the New York Times’ findings, reporting that Israeli military and intelligence officials had access to Hamas’s battle plan for a year but dismissed it as unfeasible for the militant group. Senior analysts concluded that an attack of the scale and ambition detailed in the plan was beyond Hamas’s capabilities. This dismissal led to a failure to redirect significant reinforcements to the south, where Hamas eventually attacked. Israeli military and intelligence chiefs have taken responsibility for the failure to stop the attack, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has acknowledged that he will face a reckoning, though questions about the extent of political leadership’s awareness of the plan remain unanswered​​.

The revelation of the Israeli military’s prior awareness of Hamas’s attack plans and the subsequent failure of the IDF to adequately respond highlight significant gaps in intelligence assessment and response strategies. This oversight underscores the challenges in accurately gauging the capabilities and intentions of militant groups and the need for continual vigilance and adaptability in military intelligence operations. The revelation supports the claims of PM Netanyahu that he was not informed of the dire threat, although he is widely considered complicit in believing that Hamas could be bribed with money and more access of Gaza workers to employment in Israel.

The intelligence failures will be deeply investigated, after the war. Without a doubt, heads will roll. Whatever the reasons and errors in dismissing the Wallls of Jericho plan, that exacted such a terrible, even unprecedented cost, one thing is clear. The walls came tumbling down.