Nearly a year after the November 2024 ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese–Israeli border remains volatile. 

Under the terms of the agreement, Hezbollah was required to vacate southern Lebanon and be replaced by the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), to remove the threat to Israel’s northern communities. In practice, the ceasefire more closely resembles a perpetual game of whack-a-mole as Israel continues to carry out air and ground strikes against Hezbollah violations and attempts to rebuild its military infrastructure.

According to the Galilee-based Alma Research and Education Center, as of Oct. 26, Israel has conducted 613 strikes in Lebanon since the ceasefire went into effect. Almost half of these were carried out south of the Litani River, where Hezbollah maintained dense fixed infrastructure before the war. The other half focused on the Badr Unit sector that now serves as Hezbollah’s main operational center of gravity on the southern front, and the Bekaa Valley, which functions as Hezbollah’s logistical and training depth and hosts weapons-production and missile/UAV arrays.

While the tempo of Israeli attacks has remained relatively steady at around 40–50 strikes per month in recent months, without a marked spike in October, recent strikes have seen a significantly elevated casualty rate. In the past two weeks, 18 Hezbollah operatives have been eliminated, including 11 members of the group’s Radwan unit, the logistics commander of the Southern Front HQ, a senior weapons-smuggling operative and a regional liaison. This is more than twice the stable rate of approximately 16 operatives a month that have been eliminated by Israel since the start of the ceasefire. 

IDF communiqués describe the strikes as focusing on Hezbollah operatives involved in restoring military infrastructure and offensive capabilities.

The strikes of the last two weeks have also extended their target set beyond classic military infrastructure to include sites described by Israel as civilian fronts for Hezbollah rebuilding. On Oct. 11, an airstrike hit a heavy-equipment compound in the Msayleh area, reported locally as a civilian machinery business but linked financially to the Tabaja business network, which has been identified in sanctions designations as part of Hezbollah’s financial and logistical operation.

Beyond air strikes, the IDF has also recently expanded its operational profile to include special ground raids to disrupt Hezbollah’s rebuilding efforts. In the border village of Blida, opposite Kibbutz Yiftach, the IDF conducted a raid on the municipal building following consistent use of the facility by Hezbollah terrorists. The raid resulted in the death of a man identified as Ibrahim Salameh, who the IDF described as posing an “immediate threat” to the troops.

Recent reports regarding Hezbollah’s efforts to reconstitute itself led Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to convene the Security Cabinet last week to address the issue. Netanyahu said Hezbollah “is constantly taking hits, but it’s also trying to rearm and recuperate,” adding that Israel “will not let Lebanon become a renewed front against us, and we’ll do what’s necessary.” 

The Lebanese government has also escalated its offensive posture in recent days. Following the raid on Blida, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun ordered the LAF “to confront any Israeli incursion into the liberated lands of southern Lebanon to defend Lebanon’s territory and the safety of its citizens”. In response, the LAF deployed reinforcements and new positions in several villages, including Blida.

In Beirut, officials also escalated their rhetoric, framing Israel’s air and ground operations as violations of the ceasefire and interference in reconstruction, rather than as advancing the ultimate goal of disarming Hezbollah. Beirut has further sought recourse from the United Nations to “ensure a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory and an end to repeated violations,” an action that would all but guarantee Hezbollah’s re-entrenchment in southern Lebanon.  

Brig. Gen. (res.) Yosef Kuperwasser, director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), explained that the behavior from Beirut over the past year indicates that they are not serious about upholding their side of the ceasefire arrangement. “It is clear that the Lebanese government is not willing and is not courageous enough to go to the implementation stage of disarming Hezbollah,” he told JNS. 

“The ceasefires depended on action on the ground, not nice words. The necessary actions were not taken. We’re moving in a direction that will allow Hezbollah to keep operating, to keep developing its weapons, to keep growing in the south. This is something that Israel will take action against,” he added.

Despite the protestations of the Lebanese government, recent signals from U.S. representatives in Lebanon indicate growing concern over the government’s ability to disarm Hezbollah, and the long-term viability of the ceasefire framework. 

In Washington, officials have become increasingly outspoken about Lebanon’s political paralysis and Hezbollah’s control over state institutions. During a panel discussion at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack described Lebanon as “a failed state,” saying that “the state is Hezbollah.” Barrack said it was unrealistic to demand that Lebanon “forcibly disarm one of its political parties,” warning that “everybody’s scared to death to go into a civil war.” 

During a recent trip to Beirut, U.S. Envoy Morgan Ortagus stated that Washington “welcomes the Lebanese government’s decision to put all weapons under the control of the Lebanese state by the end of the year,” but expressed skepticism about the likelihood of this eventuality. 

In recent meetings, Ortagus and Barrack warned the Lebanese government that they would be left unsupported if they did not push forward with disarmament. They cautioned that without Hezbollah’s disarmament, no funds would flow for the country’s reconstruction. 

“The Americans realized that the Lebanese government is impotent. That they can’t impose their will on Hezbollah,” Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, an analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told JNS. “The Americans understand that if the Lebanese government won’t do it, then Israel will, and the Americans are using this to pressure the Lebanese government,” he added.

Hezbollah rebuilding

In the year since the 2024 ceasefire, Hezbollah has shifted its focus from frontline engagement to reconstruction and military recovery. “At the start, there was a perception that Hezbollah was critically weakened. That we could impose new rules on Hezbollah, including possibly disarmament. However, over the past year, Hezbollah has been replenishing its arms and its people. We’re seeing exponential growth in the organization,” Neriah observed. Israeli defense officials describe this as a “systematic reconstitution process” taking place under the supervision of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 

The centerpiece of Hezbollah’s military recovery is its growing capacity for independent weapons production. The Janta complex in the northern Bekaa Valley is one of the primary sites for manufacturing and upgrading precision-guided missiles. The complex, struck at least four times by Israeli aircraft since the start of the ceasefire, is described as the focal point of Hezbollah’s move toward local manufacturing, a strategy designed to compensate for the disruption of the traditional supply route from Syria following the collapse in December 2024 of the Assad regime. 

Engineers trained by Iranian experts now assemble missile engines, guidance modules and propulsion systems using locally procured dual-use materials. This so-called “Hybrid Doctrine,” of supplementing smuggled weapons with increased at-home manufacturing capacity, mirrors Hamas’s wartime practice of dispersing small workshops beneath civilian infrastructure, reducing its vulnerability to airstrikes.

The newly produced weapons are being added to an already impressive stockpile left over from the previous conflict. IDF assessment estimates that Hezbollah currently holds roughly one-third of its pre-war firepower, retaining functional rocket, anti-tank and drone units. Estimates currently peg the Hezbollah arsenal at approximately 20,000 units.

Alongside missile development, Hezbollah has expanded its drone program, rebuilding storage and assembly facilities in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Nabatieh and the Bekaa valley. The terrorist group’s Unit 127, which oversees UAV operations, has received technical support from Iran. The objective, according to the Alma Center, is to evolve from reconnaissance flights to coordinated swarms capable of challenging Israel’s air-defense systems.

While indigenous production has reduced Hezbollah’s dependence on foreign supply lines, smuggling and financial channels remain active. Smaller shipments of weapons components move across mountainous routes along the Syrian border. 

“Hezbollah is very focused on rebuilding the smuggling routes out of Syria. Syria was once the storage room where Hezbollah kept a lot of its weapons. Right now, there are at least 377 smuggling routes across the border, all under the control of Hezbollah and various tribal and clan organizations that work with Hezbollah,” Neriah noted. 

On the economic front, a network of exchange houses and front companies channels Iranian funding through Lebanon’s informal economy. These networks finance procurement and construction projects under civilian cover, allowing the group to import sensitive materials without attracting scrutiny. 

However, Kuperwasser emphasized that the current reality is incomparable to the vast financial and smuggling network that Hezbollah had last year.

“Everything is much more difficult for Hezbollah than it used to be in the past. The Syrian border is much more difficult to deal with. Financially, they are struggling both because Iran is not doing well economically and because some of their other financial sources are under pressure. However, they are managing to get around some of these issues and to move forward with rebuilding,” he said.

Reconstruction activity in southern Lebanon provides an additional layer of concealment. Organizations such as Jihad al-Binaa, Maamar Engineering and Green Without Borders oversee rebuilding projects that double as logistical support for Hezbollah. Road-paving equipment, concrete mixers and heavy trucks are used interchangeably for civilian and military purposes. 

Israeli officials argue that these firms form part of a “dual-use ecosystem,” enabling Hezbollah to reestablish underground networks and storage facilities under the guise of post-war recovery. 

Following extensive leadership losses and Israeli intelligence penetration during the 2024 conflict, Hezbollah has reconstituted its chain of command under a younger cadre of field operatives. “We now have a new, secret military structure, led by a younger, more dynamic leadership,” Ali Fayyad, a Hezbollah member of the Lebanese Parliament, said in a recent televised interview. 

According to regional security officials cited by the French newspaper Le Figaro, Hezbollah has reverted to levels of secrecy not seen since the 1980s, separating its political and military wings and shortening command chains.

However, Kuperwasser observed that recent Israeli operations in Lebanon indicate that Hezbollah’s secrecy regimen may not be all that effective. “The fact that Israel has, on a daily basis, been able to take out Hezbollah operatives either in the south or other parts of Lebanon shows that we have intelligence capabilities to hit them hard,” he said. 

Neriah summarized the situation, explaining that Hezbollah’s passive posture should not be misinterpreted as a lack of will to fight. “Right now, Hezbollah is in survival mode. They are concentrating on rebuilding the organization and avoiding open conflict with Israel. It doesn’t mean that they are not prepared for confrontation,” he explained.  

“They’re also likely planning attacks, kidnappings and terror operations, even if they’re not planning to put these plans into use in the near future,” he added.

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