“The likelihood of an Israeli strike has gone up significantly,” says US source quoted by CNN, as the Ayatollah berates American demands as ‘outrageous’ and US nuclear diplomacy appears headed for a collapse. Trump’s optimism seems to be flagging.

Newly surfaced US intelligence suggests Israel is actively preparing for a potential military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, amid what officials describe as the near-total breakdown of nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The reports come alongside damning remarks by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who dismissed US proposals as “excessive and outrageous,” casting further doubt on the viability of ongoing diplomacy.

According to CNN, multiple American officials with access to classified assessments confirm that Israeli preparations have intensified in recent months, including the movement of air munitions and completion of high-level air exercises. While it’s unclear if Israeli leadership has made a final decision, one official noted that “the likelihood they will do so has gone up significantly.”

Another source familiar with the matter told CNN that Israel is increasingly likely to strike unilaterally if Washington accepts what Jerusalem considers a “bad deal.” According to this source, “Israel has not been shy about signaling that to us—both publicly and privately.”

This comes as nuclear diplomacy between the United States and Iran appears to be disintegrating. After four rounds of indirect talks mediated by Oman since April, neither side has signaled substantive progress. Iran’s top cleric poured cold water on hopes of a breakthrough, lambasting US calls to halt uranium enrichment. “Such demands are not just unrealistic, they are outrageous,” Khamenei said Tuesday, according to Iranian state media.

Meanwhile, former US President Donald Trump—who is once again leading American policy on the matter—has warned of dire consequences should diplomacy fail. “Something bad is going to happen unless the Iranians move quickly,” he said last week, reaffirming his threat of “massive maximum pressure” if talks collapse. While Trump has offered Tehran what he called an “olive branch,” he made clear that it would not remain on the table indefinitely.

A senior Western diplomat told CNN that Trump has given the negotiations only “weeks” before possibly turning to military options. The same diplomat said the former president believes that Israeli pressure could help bring down the talks altogether.

Although some US officials believe Israel cannot destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure without American support, an Israeli official quoted by CNN insisted that Jerusalem is prepared to act alone if necessary. “We won’t sit by while the Iranians race toward the bomb under the cover of negotiations,” the official reportedly said.

Tensions between Iran and Israel have been steadily escalating, particularly as Tehran enriches uranium to 60%—a level that has no civilian application and edges it closer to weapons-grade material. International inspectors have also been denied access to several Iranian facilities, deepening suspicions about Iran’s intentions.

Iran continues to deny pursuing nuclear weapons, claiming its program is for peaceful energy production. Yet its regional posture and repeated threats against Israel—including its funding and arming of terrorist proxies like Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad—have removed any illusion in Jerusalem about the regime’s aims.

In Washington, debate rages within the administration over whether to support an Israeli operation or continue investing in faltering diplomacy. The National Security Council has not commented, and the Israeli Embassy in Washington and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office have likewise declined to respond to CNN’s inquiries.

In the backdrop is a growing Israeli consensus that the time for action may soon arrive. While Prime Minister Netanyahu has not confirmed any military decision, he has repeatedly warned that Israel will never allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. “We will do whatever is necessary to defend ourselves, by ourselves,” Netanyahu has stated on multiple occasions.

As the clock ticks on diplomacy and Tehran continues to obstruct international oversight, the path forward appears increasingly volatile. If the negotiations collapse entirely—and Khamenei’s statements suggest they already have—Israel’s hand may be forced.