As New Year Dawns, Israel Faces Moment of Truth vs. Iran

Oct 4, 2024 11:33 am | News, Ticker, Virtual Jerusalem

With strong domestic pressure and U.S. calls for restraint, Netanyahu and security chiefs contemplate a decisive and unprecedented opportunity to strike against Iran’s nuclear threat and energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, the ground invasion of Lebanon meets resistance and intense IAF air attacks on Hezbollah’s “replacement” leadership.

On October 1, 2024, Israel was struck by its most significant missile attack in years, as Iran launched 181 ballistic missiles aimed at military installations across the country. This aggressive move, the largest ever launched by Iran directly against Israel, coincided with Hezbollah intensifying its rocket fire from southern Lebanon, further straining Israel’s northern defenses. Now, Israel faces not only the question of how to retaliate but also whether to seize the moment to confront Iran’s nuclear ambitions and possibly strike its energy infrastructure, which could cripple Iran’s economy.

While the U.S. has urged restraint, many within Israel see this moment as a critical juncture—a chance to deal a crippling blow to both Iran’s military and economic capabilities. Now that the New Year is upon us and in the run-up to the October 7 anniversary, Israel has been charged with delivering what it has called a serious and significant answer to the 7-front war with Teheran at the center of the web of evil. Can Israel deliver the death blow to the increasingly fragile Islamic republic, its repeated attacks showing only the weakness of the regime.

The Iranian Missile Assault

Iran’s October 1 missile barrage, part of Operation True Promise 2, targeted major military bases, including Nevatim and Tel Nof airbases, along with intelligence sites near Tel Aviv. Although Israel’s defense systems intercepted most of the missiles, several broke through, damaging military infrastructure and civilian areas. One person, a Palestinian in the West Bank, was killed, and several others were injured as missiles landed near a school in Gedera and homes in Hod HaSharon.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately condemned the attack, calling it a “big mistake” by Iran. “Iran has crossed a red line,” Netanyahu said, warning that Tehran would face severe consequences. In response, Israel launched airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure in Syria, with a focus on logistical hubs connected to the missile attacks.

Hezbollah’s Escalation

Simultaneously, Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy in Lebanon, launched hundreds of rockets at northern Israel. Towns like Kiryat Shmona and Metula were hit hardest, forcing civilians to take shelter. Israel’s northern defense systems were stretched, with widespread disruption in civilian life.

The Israeli Air Force responded by targeting Hezbollah’s rocket-launching sites and command centers in southern Lebanon. While this has temporarily blunted Hezbollah’s capabilities, the threat of a broader conflict remains. “We are prepared for a significant escalation,” said IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi. “If Hezbollah continues, they will be dismantled.”

U.S. Urges Moderation

The Biden administration has reaffirmed its support for Israel but has emphasized the need for restraint to prevent the situation from spiraling into a full-scale regional war. President Biden stated that the U.S. is discussing potential military responses, including whether Israel should strike Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. However, he stressed the importance of measured action, warning against rash decisions that could escalate the conflict further. “We’re discussing all options, but we must avoid any actions that could spiral out of control,” Biden noted.

Vice President Kamala Harris echoed these sentiments, calling Iran a “destabilizing and dangerous force” while also emphasizing the U.S.’s unwavering support for Israel. Harris highlighted the need to consider long-term consequences of any military response. The U.S. has already deployed two Navy destroyers, the USS Cole and USS Bulkeley, to assist Israel in defending against further missile attacks.

Internal Pressure in Israel: A “Golden Opportunity” to Address Iran’s Nuclear and Energy Threats

While U.S. leaders urge caution, internal pressure is mounting within Israel to seize the moment. Many in Israel’s defense and political circles believe this is the golden opportunity to not only neutralize Iran’s nuclear capabilities but also to strike at its energy infrastructure, a vital component of Iran’s economy. The prospect of crippling Iran’s energy sector—especially its oil fields and refineries—has been raised as a serious option. Iran’s economy relies heavily on oil exports, and hitting these assets could significantly weaken Tehran’s ability to fund its military and its regional proxies like Hezbollah.

Military analysts argue that a decisive strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure, in conjunction with targeting its nuclear program, would send a clear message to Tehran while severely limiting its future capabilities. “Iran’s lifeline is its energy sector, and by hitting it, Israel could not only damage their economy but also limit their military operations for years,” said one Israeli defense official.

This sentiment is echoed by many within the Israeli public, who, after years of warnings about the Iranian nuclear threat, are largely supportive of military action. Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly referred to a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat, and this missile attack may be the catalyst for a broader military operation. Netanyahu’s stance has remained consistent—Israel cannot allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, and the current conflict may provide the pretext for more aggressive actions.

The Risks of Striking Iran

Despite growing calls for a decisive strike, Israel’s military leadership is well aware of the risks. Targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities or energy sector would likely provoke significant retaliation, not only from Tehran but from its proxy forces across the region. Hezbollah has already intensified its rocket fire, and any action against Iran could embolden groups like Hamas in Gaza, Shiite militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen to join the fray.

Moreover, while Israel’s military is highly capable, a coordinated multi-front war could severely test the country’s defense systems and civilian resilience. The last major conflict with Hezbollah in 2006 saw significant casualties on both sides, and an extended war now could be even more destructive.

Russia has called on its citizens to leave Israel after an Israeli strike on a Russian arms shipment in Lebanon. The Russians have also stepped up supply of arms to Israel’s enemies.

Iran and Hezbollah’s Defiant Posture

Iran has shown no signs of backing down. In a rare public address on October 4, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei defended the missile attack, calling it “legitimate and legal.” Khamenei warned that Iran would retaliate again if Israel escalates further. “We will not hesitate to defend ourselves, and if necessary, we will act again,” he said.

Hezbollah, still reeling from the death of its leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike, has also vowed continued resistance. Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem declared that “Israel’s provocations have only just begun to be answered.”

Risk of Regional War

The potential for a regional war looms large as Israel faces increasing aggression from Iran and Hezbollah. With the possibility of other actors, such as Syria and Iraq, becoming involved, the situation could escalate quickly. Israel’s military is preparing for a multi-front conflict, with enhanced defenses along the northern border and a focus on neutralizing Hezbollah’s capabilities.

The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to meet on October 5 at the request of Israel and France to discuss the crisis. However, given the current level of hostilities, the chances of a diplomatic resolution appear slim.

Conclusion

Israel now faces a critical decision: how to respond to Iran’s direct missile attack and Hezbollah’s escalating rocket fire. With U.S. pressure for moderation and strong internal calls for a decisive strike, particularly against Iran’s nuclear and energy infrastructure, Israel is walking a delicate line between deterrence and escalation.

The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Israel can contain the conflict or whether it will spiral into a larger regional war with devastating consequences. For now, Israel’s military remains on high alert, prepared for further aggression, while weighing the risks and rewards of a more extensive campaign against Iran.

1 Comment

  1. Sandra Smith

    Israel must FINISH this, or continue to live under constant threat of attack; there is no “diplomatic solution” with people determined on a course of annihilation! Neither is there a 3rd option for Israel. Even if, by some wild chance, they did decide to abandon the land of YHWH God’s promise to them, WHERE, in this world could they go, and live in peace??? WHERE would they be allowed that? In all human history, they have not been allowed that anywhere, since YHWH called Abram out of Ur and away from the worship of “Alla”! Not even in the US have they truly been permitted to dwell in peace and safety, nor would they be now. So that isn’t even an option, as some leftists are calling for, ignorantly.

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