In the fog of war, truth is the first casualty. This axiom seems particularly relevant to Gaza, where reported civilian death tolls, especially those of women and children, appear to be vastly inflated, the result of a sophisticated Pallywood production.

We in Israel last week saw it playing out nightly, as Hamas leadership staged a production using terrorized hostages as props, prompting them to smile and wave at gunpoint, trying to persuade gullible or idiot viewers that they were well treated.

Having run out of hostages to terrify and then force to wave, The Strip Show has returned to familiar territory of pretending that the terror in the Gaza Strip comes from Israeli bombings rather than living under death-loving tyrants who gun down those that attempt to flee for their lives, or conficating their car keys so they can’t leave. See, the more dead civilians, the worse Israel looks.

Look carefully: they are all dolls being prepared to be used as propaganda in Gaza. Made in China, used in Gaza,
manipulate the West. https://t.co/32bS7TGsDN

— raz_sauber (@raz_sauber) December 4, 2023

A critical examination of claimed Palestinian civilian deaths raises, ahem, grave doubts, suggesting they are likely exaggerated, perhaps by a factor of ten, twenty or even a hundredfold. If 15,000 Gazans were in fact killed in the last two months, the stench of unburied bodies would be omnipresent and unbearable. But that’s simply not the case.

Instead, Palestinian reports of casualties frequently features crisis actors, apparently self-appointed influencers who take on melodramatic roles in pretending that the blood and the action is real, rather than simulated. “Corpses” in body bags raise their arms or their heads, look at their smartphones or take a cigarette break from being dead.

A Palestinian woman surrounded by media sheds ‘tears’ while clutching a plastic baby doll that she is attempting to pass off as her dead child during a staged Hamas propaganda video.

pic.twitter.com/ffarDbuam7

— Benonwine (@benonwine) December 1, 2023

Lately we have video proof of baby dolls being dressed up as corpses, painted blood red and mutilated. Mamas and grandpas cling to them and rock them, even as we see the wires which make the babies cry. Can they afford the wireless bluetooth models? If there’s no electricity, how do they cry?

Jerusalem Post removes article that wrongly claimed a Palestinian baby killed in Gaza was a doll, posting on social media that an article not meeting their standards was deleted.

The baby, identified as Muhammad Hani al-Zahar, was killed in an Israeli air strike on Gaza. pic.twitter.com/f4shXmblot

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) December 3, 2023

One striking proof of how much exaggeration there must is the repeated use of silicon dolls to simulate dead babies in media reports. This bizarre practice not only distorts reality but also undermines the credibility of casualty figures provided by sources within Gaza. If the reports of high child fatalities were accurate, why would there be a need to use silicon baby dolls from China and stage such macabre theatrics?

The precedent for such skepticism isn’t without basis. Consider the widely reported incident of an alleged hospital bombing in Gaza, which the Hamas Health (now there’s an oxymoron!) Ministry initially claimed 600 lives. Later investigations revealed a starkly different reality: the strike of a misfired rocket, apparently by Palestinian Islamic Jihad had hit nearby cars in a parking lot. The fireball was big, but the death toll was miniscule, unless you’re counting jalopies.

This discrepancy between initial claims and verified facts casts further doubt on current reports, but the ratio of a hundred claimed for every one actual sounds about right. Let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and say they are exaggerating tenfold. Let’s use that as a benchmark.

Let’s do the math. Take Israeli rough estimates of 3000 before the hostage release lull and maybe another 1000 since the resumption of fighting. The IDF has proven to be extremely accurate and deliberate in its Gaza campaign. There are few errant bombs. Citizens are usually warned with roof-knocks. They’ve had days if not weeks to evacuate combat zones.

So let’s estimate 4000 dead, mostly militants. Then, reasonably, we can add one-tenth (based on the Palestinian claim-to-actual ratio) of the 11,000 that Palestinians say are non-combatants (15,000-4,000). In other words, we can estimate based on revealed cases of Hamas exaggeration, that about 1000, not 15,000 were “innocent civilians.” That would bring us to about 5000, maybe a bit more, overwhelmingly dominated by men of fighting age. Only a tiny fraction is likely to be non-combatants.

And every single one of them is dead because of Hamas, first for massacring 1200 Israelis, two-thirds of them civilians, and then for hiding out and storing munitions in hospitals, schools, and mosques, hiding behind babies.

This is not rocket science. It not especially scientific. But it’s probably a much closer accurate than that of the Hamas Health Ministry.

The IDF Spokesepeople should be thinking this way, making educated estimates of their own, not leaving the field of exaggeration only to Hamas.

Doing so would remind those watching that Pallywood and casualty inflation is a Palestinian war effort that the West should not swallow like a garbage-eating gull. Or keep allowing the Palestinians to play with dolls. Maybe the mainstream media wants the dolls to be real, but doing so gives Hamas a pass for using real kids as human shields.