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As Hurricane Milton batters Florida two weeks after the devastating Category 4 Hurricane Helene, an Israeli climate scientist explains why we can expect more powerful storms like these in the future.
“While we’re not necessarily seeing an increase in the number of hurricanes and tropical storms, we are definitely seeing an increase in their intensity,” says Prof. Colin Price, a climate researcher at Tel Aviv University and head of its PlanNet Zero Climate Crisis Initiative.
Hurricane Helene, which made landfall in Florida on September 26th, was the deadliest hurricane to hit the US mainland since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. It left a trail of destruction across six states, caused massive flooding, and killed 223 people. Hundreds are still missing.
Homes and buildings were destroyed along the Florida coastline in the wake of Hurricane Helene. Photo by Tajdid Protik, via Shutterstock
Last night, Hurricane Milton roared in as a Category 3 storm, slamming the same coastline that had been destroyed by the earlier storm. US President Joe Biden, among many other community leaders, called it “the storm of the century” and warned residents to evacuate.
“We’re seeing warmer ocean temperatures, which we’re pretty confident is because of climate change,” Price notes, explaining that most of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases is absorbed by the oceans.
This warming extends down to about 100 meters below the surface, creating a vast reservoir of energy that can power more intense hurricanes as the water evaporates.
“That evaporation — that water vapor which leaves the ocean and goes into the atmosphere — is basically the fuel for these storms,” he adds.
As a result of the hotter ocean water, which in turn causes more evaporation, tropical storms these days have plenty of fuel to work with.
“A storm that may have been a Category 3, 40 years ago in the same location, could now be a Category 5,” Price tells ISRAEL21c.
He points out that in the 1970s, only about 15 percent of Atlantic hurricanes reached the most dangerous categories of 4 and 5. Today, that figure is closer to 40-50%.
Climate models indicate this trend will continue as global temperatures rise. “All the models predict that by the end of the century, maybe we won’t have more storms, but when they do develop we will definitely see more intense storms,” he explains.
Dire implications
These more powerful hurricanes bring multiple threats, including stronger winds, higher storm surges pushing seawater inland and increased rainfall and inland flooding.
Even with immediate action to combat climate change, its effects on hurricane intensity will persist for years.
“It’s not going to dip down until temperatures start cooling down, and that’s not going to happen for decades,” Price says.
Damage along the Pinellas County beaches in Treasure Island, Florida, from Hurricane Helene. Photo by M. Julian Photography, via Shutterstock
The Mediterranean region isn’t immune to these effects either.
Price highlights the phenomenon of “medicanes” — smaller hurricane-like storms that form in the Mediterranean Sea. While data is limited, there’s concern that warming waters could intensify these storms as well, potentially impacting countries like Israel and others in the region.
Economic threat
Beyond the immediate destruction, Price’s research reveals a looming economic threat.
His team has found that if climate change continues unabated, the US insurance industry could face bankruptcy by 2060 due to the massive costs of increasingly frequent and severe hurricanes.
This grim forecast has led Price to advocate for greater involvement from the insurance sector in climate-change mitigation efforts.
“They should actually be investing in various solutions to reduce greenhouse gases,” he argues, suggesting that such investments could ultimately save the industry from financial ruin.
As the world grapples with the reality of a changing climate, Price’s insights underscore the urgent need for action. From the shores of Florida to the coasts of the Mediterranean, the message is clear: Without significant efforts to curb global warming, we can expect storm seasons to become increasingly more intense in the years to come.
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