Hezbollah’s leadership vacuum grows as Israeli strikes intensify, targeting Beirut and southern Lebanon. The terrorists fire back at Haifa, ineffectually so far. No one wants to step up to the plate, understandably. Will this intimidation end the war or expand it?

Hezbollah faces an unprecedented leadership crisis after the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in late September 2024. Despite pressure to appoint a successor, the group remains leaderless, as top figures, including Deputy Leader Sheikh Naim Qassem, have refused to take up the mantle. “We will elect a leader in due course,” Qassem declared in a recent statement, signaling that Hezbollah would continue its operations without a formal leader for now. This reluctance has sparked concerns about internal divisions within the organization as it faces growing challenges from Israel’s intensified military campaign.

In the latest wave of fighting, Hezbollah launched its heaviest rocket barrage on Haifa since the October 7 war began. Over 100 rockets were fired, though most were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome defense system. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) responded with precision strikes, hitting key Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and targeting military infrastructure in Beirut. “We are systematically dismantling Hezbollah’s capabilities,” an Israeli military official commented. “The group is struggling to maintain its operations under the pressure of our continued offensive.”

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was even more upbeat about Israel’s position: “When the smoke in the skies of Lebanon clears, Iran will realize that they have lost the precious asset they built for years – Hezbollah. A year after the start of the war, Hams is a disbanded organization, and Hezbollah is a battered, broken organization, without command and control capabilities, without significant fire capabilities, with attempts to raise its head and above all without leadership.”

The hesitation within Hezbollah to appoint a new leader further complicates its ability to organize and respond to Israeli actions. One potential candidate, Hashem Safieddine, Nasrallah’s cousin and head of Hezbollah’s executive council, is seen as a hardliner but has not been officially named as the successor. “It’s a dangerous position to take right now,” noted Middle East analyst Hisham Melhem. “The assassination of Nasrallah has sent a chilling message to Hezbollah’s leadership. Nobody wants to be next on Israel’s target list.”

Israel’s airstrikes in Beirut and southern Lebanon have already claimed the lives of two senior Hezbollah commanders, further destabilizing the group’s command structure. While Hezbollah continues to retaliate with rocket attacks, the IDF reports that its strikes have significantly diminished the group’s capacity to launch sustained operations. “We’re seeing a real degradation in Hezbollah’s capabilities,” said Amos Yadlin, former head of Israeli military intelligence. “Their leadership vacuum only exacerbates their operational challenges.”

As the war rages on, Hezbollah’s internal crisis and Israel’s military gains have left the group in a precarious position. The lack of a clear leader weakens Hezbollah’s ability to coordinate its military efforts and navigate the complex political landscape in Lebanon. Experts believe that unless a successor is chosen soon, Hezbollah risks further fragmentation. “Nasrallah’s death has created a power vacuum that the group cannot afford in the middle of this conflict,” observed Lebanese political commentator Michael Young. “The longer they go without a leader, the more vulnerable they become.”

With Israel dominating the battlefield and Hezbollah grappling with internal struggles, the group’s future remains uncertain. Israeli forces can be expected to keep up their pressure and killings, further testing the group’s resilience in both military and leadership terms.