In first call with Netanyahu in a month, US President reneges on previous solemn commitment and rejects any large-scale IDF move into Rafah under any conditions, setting up an impending full frontal collision between the US and Israel.

President Joe Biden has shown what his word is worth, moving the goalposts dramatically on the US ally, undermining what Israelis across the political spectrum see as an essential last step to defeating Hamas.

In this promised “Come to Jesus” call, Biden marked an Israeli invasion of Rafah as an unacceptable “red line.” This statement represents a dramatic collapose of the U.S. stance, as he had previously stated that an offensive which included a comprehensive plan for civilian safety would receive U.S. backing.

Rafah, positioned at the southern edge of Gaza bordering Egypt, has become a focal point in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. The area is densely populated, housing around 1.4 million Palestinians, many of whom have sought refuge from other parts of Gaza. It’s also where the remaining Hamas battalions, its leadership, and more than 100 Israeli captives, are believed to be kept. Only an Israeli operation stands a chance of destroying the battallions, capturing or killing the leaders, and rescuing the hostages.

In addition to stepping back from its prior commitment, he U.S. administration has simultaneously shifted its language regarding ceasefire efforts. Initially avoiding the term, Biden has recently been more vocal about pursuing an “immediate ceasefire.”

This “bait and switch” by the Biden administration raises troubling questions about the dependability of the US as a credible ally, with ominous implications for U.S.-Israel relations. While the U.S. insists that there was no change in policy, emphasizing Israel’s right to defend itself, the emphasis on a ceasefire and humanitarian aid over a military strategy to defeat Hamas marks a clear departure from earlier positions. This could potentially delay, if not derail, Israel’s plans for a ground invasion aimed at dismantling Hamas’ stronghold in Rafah. But Netanyahu has made it clear that Israel will pursue the operation nonetheless.

In this high-stakes game of “chicken,” who will Blinken first?

Biden’s declaration of a new “red line” against an Israeli invasion of Rafah confronts Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unwavering and explit commitment to proceed. This dynamic sets the stage for a high-stakes game of geopolitical “chicken,” with Netanyahu ready to challenge the U.S. position head-on. The Israeli Prime Minister has made it clear that the fate of the nation hinges on the success of operations in Rafah, underscoring the critical nature of this confrontation in the context of Israel’s broader security and strategic objectives​​​​.

Netanyahu’s resolve to invade Rafah, despite Biden’s warnings, speaks volumes about the depth of Israel’s perceived threat from Hamas and the existential stakes at play. Israel’s willingness to engage in dialogue, or “come to Jesus” with the Biden administration, suggests a readiness to negotiate up to a point. However, Netanyahu’s assertion that Israel will enter Rafah, despite international opposition, indicates a decisive break from seeking approval to pursuing what Israel sees as essential for its survival.

Netanyahu has made it crystal clear that without a Rafah operation, Hamas will survive, reconstitute its fighting forces, and fulfill its promises to attack Israel again and again as it did on October 7. He has compared the situation to World War II, asking if the US and Allies would agree not to go into Berlin to hunt down Hitler and defeat the Nazis.

“We have a disagreement with the Americans about the need to enter Rafah,” Netanyahu told the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Wednesday. “Not about the need to eliminate Hamas — the need to enter Rafah. We do not see a way to eliminate Hamas militarily without destroying these remaining battalions. We are determined to do it. ”

“I made it clear to the president in our conversation, in the clearest way, that we are determined to complete the elimination of these battalions in Rafah,” says Netanyahu. “There is no way to do it, except by going in on the ground.

“We need to complete the military elimination of Hamas,” he explains. “There is no substitute for that, you can’t go around it, you can’t say ‘we’ll destroy 80% of Hamas, we’ll [leave] 20%,’ because that 20% will reorganize and retake the Strip, and of course they will pose a renewed threat to Israel, and of course it will also be a victory for the broader axis that threatens us — the Iranian axis.”

Netanyahu said that Israel will neutralize Hamas, even at the risk of straining ties with its most crucial ally, the United States​​. While Netanyahu did not refuse Biden’s “summons” to send a delegation to Washington, there can be little doubt that this is little more than a delaying tactic where any Israeli plan put forward will be rejected by the Biden Administration for its own political motives.

Jake Sullivan, Admistration national security flack, rejected outright Netanyahu’s claim that a Rafah operation was essential. Sullivan called it a “straw man” argument, saying that there were military alternatives, which he did not name.

Biden’s call for a ceasefire, now more vocal than ever, represents a pivot towards diplomatic and humanitarian efforts to resolve the conflict, contrasting with Netanyahu’s military-focused strategy. This divergence in approaches underscores the complexity of balancing military objectives with humanitarian imperatives, all while navigating the intricate dynamics of international relations​​​​.

While Biden is spoiling for a fight with Netanyahu, evidently thinking it will help him in his flagging re-election campaign, making him look “tough” and ingratiating himself with young progressive voters and Arabs in Michigan, he may not have counted on a backlash of Jewish votes and donors. As they contemplate the Administration’s “bait and switch” with Bibi, and its moving of the goalpost in Rafah, they may well withdraw their support.

Standing up to the unfair Biden moves also improves Netanayahu’s standing in Israel. The overwhelming majority back his pragmatic stance that only a Rafah operation can defeat Hamas, return the hostages, and protect Israel. Most Israelis also forcefully rejecting US attempts to impose the diktat of a Palestinian State, opposed by most Israelis in the wake of October 7.